Stephen Strasburg is only one year removed from Tommy John surgery and has already logged 18 big league innings over four starts and 20.1 minor league innings this year. Washington Nationals prized arm and the top pitching prospect in recent memory has made a remarkable recovery from a surgery that usually keeps a pitcher out much longer.
The most remarkable part about Strasburg’s recovery is that command usually takes a full year and a half to come back, yet, Strasburg has not walked a single major league hitter in his 18 innings of duty. Take a quick look at his stats, albeit in small sample sizes: 18 innings, 14 strikeouts, 0 walks, 0 homeruns, 2.00 ERA, 1.47 FIP, and 0.8 fWAR.
In only a handful of inning he has already been worth more than most relievers over a full season. The stat line of Strasburg in those handful of innings are incredibly encouraging but he is not the same pitcher he was before the injury.
While Strasburg has re-gained his control and command much faster than almost anyone recovering from Tommy John ever has, he is still lacking a bit in the velocity area. According to this article by Keith Law 83% of all Tommy John recovering pitchers gain their velocity and command back but the command usually comes last. Strasburg has been the opposite and this very rare.
Strasburg averaged 97.3 mph on his fastball and 82.4 mph on his curveball pre-injury. This year he has averaged 95.8 mph on his fastball and 79.4 mph on his curveball. Both are still plus pitches but the velocity is not yet back to it’s normal range. The good news, though, is that the command is there and all three of his pitches are still plus, including his devastating change up that has almost the same velocity now as it did last year.
He threw his fastball 57.8% of the time, curveball 25.5%, and change-up 16.7% last year. This year he has thrown the fastball 76.6%, curveball 10.9%, and change-up 12.5% of the time. Again, these are small sample sizes but the difference is proof that Strasburg needs a little more time to be back to normal.
There really should not be any cause for concern, though. As Law pointed out in the article the odds are for Strasburg getting his velocity back are very high and now that the surgery is done there should be little concern of Strasburg suffering another major injury as long as he keeps his conditioning up. The Strasburg of this year has looked very good although not quite the same as last year. But do not fret because the best is still yet to come.
-Jonathan C. Mitchell can be found writing about the Tampa Bay Rays at DRaysBay and you can follow him on twitter at @FigureFilbert and follow MLBdirt at @MLBdirt
