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The Milwaukee Brewers traded right-handed ace Zack Greinke to the Los Angeles Angels last night in exchange for shortstop prospect Jean Segura and right-handed pitchers John Hellweg and Ariel Pena. The Angels, looking to win now made a move that I like despite giving up three good prospects.
When a deal involves a player who is nothing more than a two-month rental I rarely side with the team that is dealing for that player when there are legitimate prospects exchanging teams. But, in this case, the deal makes a lot of sense for the Angels.
Greinke leads the Majors with a 2.51 FIP with a his 2.79 xFIP is second in the Majors only to Stephen Strasburg. But his ERA is 3.44, while good, it is not indicative of what his true talent is and he has his highest BABIP since 2005.
Greinke moves from a team with a -6.2 UZR to a team with a +29.0 UZR which ranks second in the league. He also moves to a ballpark that supresses homeruns.
Greinke also replaces Ervin Santana who has been worth -0.5 fWAR this season thanks to a 6.00 ERA and 5.74 FIP. This should be at least a two-win improvement for the Angles.
The deal for Greinke also means that the Texas Rangers do not get him and that they did not have to give up more for a pitcher like the Tampa Bay Rays’ James Shields who has two years and two months of team control left. If the Angels had dealt for Shields they would have likely had to include a package far superior to the one they did for Greinke.
As far as the package the Brewers got in return, it is a very fair return and one that should start paying dividends for the Brewers parent club by next year.
Segura is the prize of the lot and he was my #2 Angels prospect behind Mike Trout coming into the 2012 season and my #50 overall prospect. He has a hit tool that could lead to a .300 average and the ability to steal 30+ bases in a season. His patience at the plate is his main weakness but that can be changed. His defense at short is average with an average arm and average range but he would be well above-average if he were moved to second base but I would keep him at short until he proves he cannot stay there.
Hellweg was my #5 Angels prospect and #144 overall and comes with a fastball that can reach the upper-90s with an slightly above-average breaking ball and below-average change-up to go with his well below-average command. I said in my rankings that if he could stick as a starter he wold likely go up in the rankings but his K/9 has dropped so much I’m not really sure what to make of Hellweg just yet. He is a great piece to trade for with mid-rotation ability and knock-out reliever floor if he gets a better hold of his command.
Pena was listed in my “names to watch” after my top 16 Angels prospects and he has definitely seen his stock rise with a very good Double-A season so far. Pena will sit in the 90-94 range but can dial it up to the mid-90s in short stints with an above-average change-up and average breaking ball. He needs to work on his command as well. He could be a solid mid-rotation starter with improved command.
The Angels prospects given up were not immediate impact guys for their parent club. With Howie Kendrick and Erick Aybar both signed to long-term deals and a solid rotation that is mostly locked up and should include top pitching prospect Garrett Richards for years these were pieces that could be dealt without hurting the parent club now or in the near future.
-Jonathan C. Mitchell can be found writing about the Tampa Bay Rays at DRaysBay and the Florida Marlins at ESPN’s SweetSpot site Marlins Daily. You can follow him on twitter at @FigureFilbert. Be sure to follow MLBdirt at @MLBdirt
Image may be NSFW.
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